There are so many factors affecting the election this year. It has been a crazy year but I think that the most important issue is rolling the COVID tyranny back. In order to prevent this tyranny from happening again, the establishment has to be broken. Donald Trump showed the corruption of that establishment and having him in office will further help more people to wake up and see the corruption.
It is very hard to predict the outcome of this election. I don’t generally believe in polls. It is very hard to select the right sample that matches the people turning out for the election. It think that most people have a tendency to give the politically correct answer to public polls if they had to answer. I also believe that many people don’t bother answering the phone when a strange number calls because of all the spam. Online polls also suffer many biases. Only people who care about polls participate in these panels.
Trump has a few factors in his favor.
- He has a devoted base that likes him and would show up to attend his rallies and vote for him.
- Some of his less devoted supporters didn’t show up to vote in 2016 because they believed the polls and the media hype that he is destined to lose. These people will show up this time because his victory last time confirmed the possibility of his win.
- Many republicans voted for Hillary Clinton or Garry Johnson last time because they believed the establishment conservatives’ attacks on Trump. Many of them will vote for Trump this time because they like the tax cuts and the destruction of ISIS.
- I think that Trump is also the choice of all the people who are fed up of the overreaction to COVID and want their lives back. These people may overlap with his base but there are many libertarians and nonvoters who will vote for him this time because they don’t support the lockdowns.
- There are also some signs that some of the minority groups such as the blacks and latinos are warming up to Trump. These voters are the backbone of the Democrat’s support in urban areas. They were hurt badly by the lockdowns that the democrats support so they may not support them strongly this time.
Trump on the other hand has some factors against him.
- Every single large media organization and social media is working hard to suppress his message and the stories favoring him. Back in 2016, they didn’t think that he won so they gave him a lot of free coverage because they though that his rhetoric will sink him.
- Many people, especially in urban centers, believe that COVID is a threat and support strong lockdowns. These people will support Biden’s lockdown policies. COVID disproportionally affects older people and they tend to vote. Republicans relied on the old vote for decades and weakening in their support there will hurt Trump.
- The biggest factor that may hurt Trump is the strong voter turn out operation all of the mainstream media and big tech are running. This efforts may bring the kinds of the voters who believe mainstream opinions and they are not pro Trump voters. It’s not yet clear the impact of this operation versus other factors driving voter turnout.
The support vs. opposition to the COVID tyranny is a good proxy for this election. Let’s pray that the voters who oppose the lockdown and value their lives outnumber the voters who favor lockdowns and trust the government experts in the battle ground states.